Heading into 2027, most companies are planning for growth. 60% expect headcount to grow, and only 3% expect a reduction. The risk sits elsewhere: in who is leaving, and in what it costs to hire scarce, hard-to-find talent.
This is the last of three posts on Pave and Alpine Rewards' survey on budgeting and planning for 2027. The first covered merit budgets, and the second covered pay transparency and equity compensation. This article looks at how much growth companies expect, where voluntary turnover runs hot, and how technology companies are paying a premium for scarce AI skills.
{{mid-cta}}
Growth is the plan, but many companies are in replacement mode
Most companies plan to grow in 2027, but not quickly. Three in five expect headcount to rise, and only one in five expects growth above 15%. Another quarter are in replacement mode, hiring only to backfill departures, and just 3% expect to shrink.
For those companies, every voluntary departure has to be backfilled. That makes turnover the number to watch.
Turnover runs hotter in some technology sub-industries
Voluntary turnover runs hotter in technology than in biopharma. At one end, a third of Enterprise Software companies (34%) report turnover above 15%. At the other, 84% of Pre-commercial Biopharma companies report 10% or less. That makes sub-industry the right comparison group for any turnover benchmark.
Treat the sub-industry detail as directional. Most of these groups are small, and only Enterprise Software and Pre-commercial Biopharma have more than 50 responses.
Companies respond with cash or equity, depending on ownership
When turnover is the number to watch, what companies do about it depends on whether they are public or private. Private companies lean on cash as a retention strategy: 61% made cash retention awards for non-executive employees in the past 12 months, vs. 45% of public companies. Public companies split between cash and stock, with 44% making off-cycle RSU grants, more than double the 20% of private companies. And about a quarter of companies in both groups took no retention-specific action at all.
Technology pays a premium for scarce AI skills
No conversation about attracting and retaining employees would be complete without discussing AI talent. And AI pay is a technology story. 69% of technology companies use higher base salary ranges or premium pay structures for roles that require scarce or specialized AI expertise, against 30% of life sciences companies.
The premium isn't limited to base pay. 43% of technology companies offer higher initial equity grants to new hires, 37% offer sign-on bonuses, and 28% offer higher refresh equity grants for retention—all at higher rates than life sciences companies. 21% of technology companies rely on frequent individual exceptions or out-of-range approvals for these roles, compared to just 4% in life sciences.
The premium follows the role. On average, companies rank AI research scientists and machine learning engineers at the top for both cash and equity. General business roles with AI tooling skills rank last. For the three roles in between, cash ranks higher than equity every time, though by only 0.1 to 0.4 points.
What it adds up to
Across the three posts, the picture is consistent. Merit budgets are holding at a 3.5% median. Equity and pay transparency practices split by industry and ownership. And workforce risk is concentrated: technology companies are paying for scarce AI skills and some sub-industries are running hot on turnover.
Want even more insights you won’t find in these articles? Download the report.
Sasha is a marketing writer and editor with a background in bringing B2B SaaS brands to life through content.
